中国石油安全状况分析——2006～2008年中国石油安全指标测度

Analysis of China's Oil Security——a measure to 2006～2008 China's Oil Security indicators

2006～2008年中国石油安全指标测度结果显示,总体上石油安全性略有上升,其中石油消费强度和消费增长速度有所降低,运输通道可靠性增强,储量接替率提高,战略石油储备天数增加,石油进口来源地增多。但是,石油进口集中度提高,储采比不断下降,价格波动逐年增大。此外,石油进口依存度、战略石油储备度、能源可转换与替代度仍处于"不安全"状况。本文认为实现石油安全乃至经济安全的根本是发展新能源和可再生能源,走"能源-环境-经济"的协调发展之路。

Empirical results of 2006～2008 China＇s oil security indicators show that the overall situation of China＇s energy security has a slight increase,in which intensity and growth rate of oil consumption decreases,the reliability of transport Channel enhances,reserve replacement rate rises,the days of strategic petroleum reserve and Source of oil imports increase.But,concentration degree of oil imports is still higher,oil reserve-production is relatively low,oil price fluctuations are large year by year.In addition,dependence on oil imports and strategic reserve degree of petroleum as well as energy convertible and replacement degrees are still in the ＂unsafe＂ situation.So,this paper argues that the root to achieve oil or energy security and even economic security is to develop new and renewable energy sources,and to go to a sustainable path of ＂Energy-Environment-Economy＂ co-ordination development.