从存货投资波动透视我国产能过剩问题

On the Problem of Excess Production Capacity from the View of Fluctuation of the Inventory Investment

本文用H-P滤波法从我国经济的波动中分解出国内最终消费支出波动和进、出口货物贸易的波动,然后分析存货投资波动分别和二者的关系。结果发现,存货投资的波动也可以作为反映国际市场的波动对我国影响的重要参考;存货投资波动和国内最终消费支出波动出现背离,反映了我国经济在市场化方面还存在差距。在此基础上,本文提出解决产能过剩问题的建议。

The result shows the inventory investment fluctuation also reflects the effect of the international market fluctuation on our country.And the deviation,which comes from the inventory investment fluctuation and the domestic final consumption fluctuation,reflects there exists gap in respect of marketization in Chinese economy.