关于我国外汇储备安全问题的思考

Some Considerations on the Security Problem of China's Foreign Exchange Reserve

本文认为,一国外汇储备出现安全问题主要有两方面原因:一是外汇收支连续赤字,以致外汇储备大幅下降;二是所持有的外汇储备不断贬值,导致外汇储备价值降低。要保证我国外汇储备安全,必须双管齐下。第一,加强自主创新,抓紧产业升级和产品升级,在新能源、新材料、生物科技、环保产业等方面寻求新突破,提高我国商品的出口竞争力,同时大力发展旅游等服务业,创造更适于外资进入的投资环境,防止民间资本非正常性地大量外流,以保证国际贸易收支平衡,保证外汇储备不至于大幅下降。第二,优化外汇储备结构,增加外汇黄金储备和外汇资产储备,利用外汇储备作为信贷资金对外贷款,带动产品出口、工程承包、劳务输出等,带动国内经济,利用外币进口先进设备、短缺原材料和燃料,进行海外投资,藏汇于民,以保证外汇储备保值增值。此外,还应进一步研究如何消除人民币小步升值、缓慢升值的不利影响,如何建立符合新型发展中国家现状的、合理的外汇储备量标准,怎样建立外汇储备安全预警机制等问题,加强对与我国联系较多的国家币值变动趋势和汇率决定理论的研究。

The author believes that there are two causes for t he security problem of foreign exchange reserve：the continuous deficit in foreign exchange receipt and payment which will lead to the decrease of foreign exchange reserve and the depreciation of foreign exchange reserve which will lead to the decrease in the value of foreign exchange reserve.To guarantee the security of China＇s foreign exchange reserve,we should,first,strengthen the independent innovation,pay more attention to the industrial and product update,make breakthroughs in such aspects as new energy,new material,biotechnology and green industry,improve our competitiveness in commodity export,work hard to develop such industries as tourism,create a better environment for foreign investment,prevent the abnormal outflow of non-government capital to guarantee the balance of payment and prevent the decrease of foreign exchange reserve.Second,we should optimize the structure of foreign exchange reserve,increase the gold reserve and foreign capital reserve,grant foreign exchange loans by taking the foreign exchange reserve as the credit capital,encourage the development of product export,the export of organized labor services and domestic economy,import the advanced equipment,the scarce raw material and fuel,encourage overseas investment,encourage the people to hold more foreign exchange to preserve and increase the value of foreign exchange reserve.Besides,we should also further explore how to eliminate the adverse effect brought by the slight and slow appreciation in RMB,how to formulate a standard for the rational volume of foreign exchange reserve that meets the requirement of the current situation of the developing countries,and how to set up the warning system for the security of foreign exchange reserve,and strengthen research on the fluctuation and the determination theory of foreign exchange rate of those closely related countries＇currency.