21世纪初人口场景预测研究回顾

Review of Demographic Scenarios Projection Research at the Beginning of 21 Century

人口预测方法可以分为场景预测和概率预测两大类,虽然场景预测方法由来已久,但仍然有很强的生命力。进入21世纪,一些西方学者采用该方法在人口迁移预测、人口动量预测以及人口生育率预测等方面成果显著。由于场景预测方法在中、长期预测上更为准确,因此进入新世纪,国内一些学者也运用该方法主要进行了人口总量预测。

There are two methods of scenarios and probabilistic projection in demographic projection and the scenarios is still powerful now through developed long time ago.In 21 century some researchers in the west made lots of projection with the methods in migration,population momentum effect,and fertility fields.Because of more accurate in middle and long term projection,when entering new century some natioanl researchers picked the method to forecast the total population mainly.