菲利普斯曲线非线性特征考察:来自失业率及通胀率等国际面板数据

On the Nonlinear Characteristics of Phillips Curve:with the International Panel Data such as Unemployment Rate and Inflation Rate

通过利用OECD国家1971-2007年期间的失业率、通胀率等国际面板数据考察菲利普斯曲线的非线性特征。表明,菲利普斯曲线不是简单的线性关系,而是存在明显的非线性特征。面板门限模型和平滑转换模型的结论显示,通胀率与失业率的关系随着通胀率的变化而变化,在高通胀状态,二者的替代关系非常明显,而在低通胀状态,二者的替代关系则明显减弱甚至消失。

In this paper,it turns out that Phillips curve is not a simple linear relations,but an obvious nonlinear relations.And the relations between inflation rate and unemployment rate changes when the inflation rate changes.