转型时期我国“产出-物价”菲利普斯曲线的动态变化趋势

The Trend of the Dynamic Change in "Output-price" Phillips Curve in the Transformation Period of Our Country

笔者使用可变参数模型揭示了转型时期我国"产出-物价"菲利普斯曲线的动态变化趋势。研究结果表明:(1)通货膨胀率对经济增长率的反应系数均为正值,表明转型以来我国经济系统的冲击主要来自于总需求方面;(2)通货膨胀率对经济增长率的反应系数呈现"凸型"变动模式,并且已经过了波动的顶峰,出现显著下降并逐渐稳定的趋势,这种趋势有助于同时实现经济增长目标和稳定物价目标;(3)反映总体价格水平的价格指数不宜再作为判断宏观经济态势的指示器,但国民经济中一些重要领域的价格波动却仍然值得关注。

The author uses vavible parameter model to analyze the trend of the dynamic change in ＂output - price＂ Phillips curve in the transformation period of our country. The findings indicate ： first, the coefficients of the reaction of inflation rate to economic growth rate are positive, which indicates that the impact on the economic system comes mainly from aggregate demand; second, the coefficients of the reaction of inflation rate to economic growth rate present a ＂convex type＂ mode, and have already passed the peak of the fluctuation, presenting an obviously descending and stabilizing trend, which can help to realizing the goals of economic growth and valorization at the same time; third, the price indexes which reflect the overall price level are not fit to be used as indicators of macro economic situation, but the price fluctuations in some important areas of national economy are still worthy of attention.