江苏省入境旅游客流波动性问题研究

A Research into the Fluctuation of Inbound Tourists Flow in Jiangsu Province

笔者以1996年～2008年江苏入境旅游者接待量月度分布情况为基础数据,分析了13年来江苏省入境旅游客流的波动性特征。通过使用SPSS16.0的季节分解功能,对江苏入境旅游旺季的时间形成了准确的判断;通过进行调整和平滑处理后得到的趋势图,对江苏入境旅游的发展状况和未来变化进行了分析和预测。在此基础上对全省13个省辖市进行入境旅游客流季节性强度指数的测算和对比,得出江苏入境旅游客流的波动性受到包括季节性因素在内的多种因子影响的结论。

Based on the monthly data of Jiangsu inbound tourists flow from 1996 to 2008, the authors analyze the features of the fluctuation of Jiangsu inbound tourists flow in the 13 years. By applying the seasonal decomposition function of SPSS16.0, the authors form a precise judgment of the time of peak season of Jiangsu inbound tourism. Using the trend chart obtained through adjustment smoothing, the authors analyze and predict development and change of Jiangsu inbound tourism. On this basis, the authors measure and compare the seasonal intensity indexes of the inbound tourists flow in 13 cities of Jiangsu Province, and come to the conclusion that the fluctuation in Jiangsu inbound tourists flow are affected by various factors including seasonal factor.