广东地区大风拟合的适用性研究

Applicability Research of High Wind Fitting in Guangdong

根据广东省电白、珠海、惠来、云浮、韶关和梅县6个气象站的历史最大风速资料,分别用极值Ⅰ型分布、皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布和韦布尔分布3种方法进行拟合分析。拟合的结果表明,极值Ⅰ型分布与皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布都能较好地拟合出最大风速的频率分布,韦布尔分布拟合效果较差;内陆地区极值Ⅰ型分布和皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布得到的结果相近,而沿海地区由于风速波动性较大,极值Ⅰ型分布拟合的重现期风速要大于皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布。但在各种工程的实际拟合应用中,仍然需要根据具体的情况采取合适的拟合方法。

Based on the historical maximum wind speed data from 6 stations of Dianbai, Zhuhai, Huilai, Yunfu, Sha- oguan and Meixian in Guangdong province, we use the three methods i. e. Extreme - I distribution, Pearson - Ⅲ distribution and Weibull distribution to perform the fitting analysis. The result indicates that, Extreme - I distribution and Pearson - Ⅲ distribution can fit the frequency distribution of maximum wind speed well, but Weibull distribution is poor at it. Fitting by Ex- treme - I distribution is close to that by Pearson -Ⅲ distribution in the interior area, but larger in the coastal areas because of the wind speed fluctuation. It is critical to carefully choose appropriate fitting methods in different engineering projects under different situations.