江苏省建筑业增长自身影响因素实证分析

Factors affecting development of Jiangsu construction industry and its case analysis

为了确定技术进步、资本投入和劳动投入这3个主要影响因素对江苏省建筑业的贡献率,运用生产函数和增长模型进行实证研究.首先选择建筑业增加值作为产出指标Y,建筑业的固定资产净值作为资本投入指标K,建筑业从业人数作为劳动投入指标L.然后根据1990—2006年江苏省建筑业原始数据平减后的时间序列数据,采用柯布-道格拉斯生产函数和回归法,发现资本产出弹性系数大于劳动产出弹性系数.最后用索洛增长模型分析资本投入、劳动投入和技术进步对江苏省建筑业经济增长的贡献率.结果表明:资本投入因素的贡献度最高,达到60.06%;江苏省建筑业还处于外延增长阶段,需要提高技术进步和劳动投入因素的影响,实现向内涵式增长的转变.

To determine the contributions of three factors,i.e.technological progress,capital investment and manpower input,production function and growth model are applied.Construction added value is chosen as output indicator Y,construction industry fixed assets as capital indicator K and construction employment as manpower indicator L.Using time-series data processed from primary data of construction industry in Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2006,by C-D function and OLS（ordinary least squares）,it is found that capital elasticity factor is larger than manpower elasticity factor.By Solow growth model,the contribution of capital investment,manpower input and technology progress are obtained.The results show that capital investment is the highest contribution factor to Jiangsu construction industry,which is 60.06%.Therefore Jiangsu construction industry is still at epitaxial growth stage.Technology progress and manpower input are needed for further development.