山东省水泥行业CO_2排放情景与减排效果分析

Scenario analysis for CO_2 emission reduction in Shandong's cement sector

为了评估山东省水泥行业的CO2减排潜力,利用长期能源替代规划系统软件建立了LEAP-Shandong Cement模型,对山东省水泥行业的CO2排放量及相应的减排潜力进行了模拟评估.同时,在模型中运用情景分析方法,研究了基准情景、政策情景和技术情景下山东水泥行业2007～2020年的能源需求和CO2排放量以及相应的节能减排潜力.结果表明,到2020年,相对于基准情景,政策情景和技术情景下的减排潜力分别为8.5%和14.4%.因此,山东省水泥行业具有一定的减排潜力.实现减排主要依靠窑型的替代和相应技术的进步,其中,余热发电技术改进为近期的重点减排技术.总体而言,水泥行业减排兼具显著的环境、经济和社会效益.

In order to assess the emission reduction potential of Shandong Province＇s cement sector,3 scenarios （baseline scenario,policy scenario and technical scenario） are generated through a LEAP-Shandong Cement model based on long-term Energy Planning System software,and the CO2 emissions and the corresponding reduction potential of Shandong Province＇s cement industry are simulated. In the modeling process,scenario analysis is employed to study energy demand,CO2 emissions and the corresponding potential of energy-saving and emission reduction of Shandong＇s cement sector from 2007~2020. By 2020,compared with the baseline scenario,the CO2 emission reduction potentials of policy scenario and technical scenario are 8.5 percent and 14.4 percent respectively. It is concluded that the cement industry in Shandong Province has a certain emission reduction potential,which mainly depends on the substitution of kiln types and the promotion of advanced technologies. With the development focus shifted on large-scaled NSP kilns gradually,waste heat cogeneration will play an important role in the near future to improve the energy efficiency of cement production,which has significant environmental,economic and social benefits for the CO2 abatement of the cement industry.