气候变化对海河流域水资源的影响及其对策

Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources in the Haihe River Basin and Corresponding Countermeasures

将全球气候模式与分布式水文模型WEP-L耦合,在国家气候中心整理提供的多模式平均数据集基础上,利用WEP-L模拟了海河流域历史30年(1961—1990年)和未来30年(2021—2050年)降水、蒸发、径流等主要水循环要素的变化规律,分析了气候变化对海河流域水资源的影响,结果表明,未来30年:①从年际变化规律看,气温普遍升高,降雨量略有增加,蒸发量普遍加大,径流量呈减少趋势,且有丰水年洪水规模更大、平水或枯水年干旱情况更严重的趋势;②从年内变化规律看,各月蒸发量普遍增加,汛期的降雨量有所减少,非汛期的降雨量有所增加,各月径流量则有不同程度的减少。因此,未来气候变化条件下海河流域水资源管理将面临更加严峻的挑战,本研究给出了一些基本的对策。

To estimate the impacts of climate change on water resources in the Haihe River Basin,based on the multi-model average dataset provided by National Climate Centre（NCC）,a physically based distributed model,water and energy transfer processes model in large river basins（WEP-L）,coupled with general climate models（GCM）,is used to simulate the change processes of hydrological components including precipitation,evapotranspiration and runoff under different scenarios in 2021-2050 as well as historical conditions in 1961-1990,and the impacts of climate change on water resources as well as the water resource evolution rules are analyzed.The research results illustrate：1） from the viewpoint of average annual variation,comparing with the historical average（1961-1990）,although the precipitation in the future 30 years（2021-2050） will appreciably increase,due to the temperature increase,the evapotranspiration will generally increase with a larger extent than the precipitation,resulting that the runoff will decrease,and in the years with more precipitation than the historical average,the flood scale will be more large,while in the remaining years,the drought may be more severe;2） from the view of average monthly variation,comparing with the historical average（1961-1990）,the evapotranspiration in every month will increase,the precipitation and runoff will appreciably decrease in flood seasons,while in the remaining months,although the precipitation will appreciably increase,the runoff will decrease with different extents.Therefore,more serious challenge may confront the water resources management and ecology in the basin,and some corresponding countermeasures are provided.