基于广义模糊数相似测度风险分析方法

Risk analysis method based on similarity measures of generalized fuzzy numbers

为了提高风险评价信息的可信度,在"单重心方法"(SCGM)计算广义模糊数的重心点基础上,提出了一种新的基于广义模糊数相似测度的模糊风险分析方法.与现有的风险评价方法相比,基于SCGM的模糊风险分析方法考虑了决策者意见的可信度,灵活性和智能化程度更高.以管道失效概率为例给出了该方法的操作步骤,计算结果表明该方法能正确处理模糊风险分析问题,可为安全管理工作提供充分的依据.

In order to enhance the credibility of the risk assessment information,a new fuzzy risk analysis method based on similarity measures of generalized fuzzy numbers was proposed.The simple center of gravity method（SCGM） is applied to measure the degree of similarity between trapezoidal or triangular generalized fuzzy numbers by calculating their center of gravity（COG） points.The proposed similarity measure,which can overcome the drawbacks of the existing methods,is developed to deal with fuzzy risk analysis problems.The fuzzy risk analysis method is more flexible and more intelligent due to the fact that it takes into account of the degrees of confidence of decision-makers＇ opinions.Analysis steps are listed by taking the example of failure probability of pipeline.The results indicate that the method proposed can correctly handle fuzzy risk analysis problem and provide enough references in the field of safety engineering management.