基于产业层次的能源消费与增加值的动态特征——以广东为例:1985-2008年

The Dynamic Features of the Consumption and Added Value of Energy Resources at the Industrial Level:with Guangdong Taken as the Case

发展低碳经济,协调解决经济发展和能源消费之间的矛盾,是当今世界面临的一个共同问题,也是制约我国经济均衡发展的一个瓶颈。发展低碳经济需要深入探讨能源消费与增加值的关系。从广东1985至2008年的情况来看,经过向量自回归模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等方法的检验,及基于产业层次对能源消费与增加值间相互作用的动态特征进行系统分析,结果表明:广东三次产业能源消费与增加值之间均存在长期稳定的均衡关系;三次产业能源消费对增加值的影响程度不同,其中第二产业能源消费对增加值有正向影响。

The paper explores the relationship between energy consumption and added value in the three industries in Guangdong province.With the use of the vector auto-regression model,the impulse response function and the variance decomposition method,it analyzes systematically the dynamic interaction between the energy consumption and the added value happened in Guangdong province during the period of 1985-2008.The result of the analysis reveals that,there is a long-term equilibrium between energy consumption and added value existing in the three industries respectively.The effect of energy consumption is different from one industry to another.Among them,the effect of energy consumption in the second industry has a positive influence on the added value.