旅游上市公司业绩与宏观经济的动态关系研究

Study on Dynamic Relationship between Macro Economy and Tourism Listed Company's Performance

从宏观经济视角研究其对旅游上市公司业绩变化的影响,探索两者之间的动态影响关系。通过普通最小二乘回归法,建立VAR模型,利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解定量分析了宏观经济对旅游上市公司业绩的影响。结果表明,GDP和人均可支配收入的变化冲击会给旅游上市公司主营业务收入带来长期的正向影响,短期的1年时间有小幅度波动,之后影响持续稳定。从长期来看,GDP对旅游上市公司主营业务收入的影响比人均可支配收入更大。

In order to find out the dynamic relationship between macro economy and tourism listed company＇s performance,this paper did a research on tourism listed companies,using the methods of ordinary least-squares regression to establish the VAR model, and quantitatively analyzed the impact of macro economy toward tourism listed company＇ s performance by using impulse response functions and variance decomposition. Finally, the authors found that the change of GDP and per capita disposable income would positively bring about a long- term effects on main business rev- enue of the companies and a slightly a short- term fluctuation,and after about just one year,these impacts would be stable. In the long run,the effects from GDP to the main business revenue of the companies were larger than per capita disposable income.