摘要
对影响土石坝安全的基本事件进行系统分析和研究,开发土石坝安全评价数学模型。该模型直观地反映了各基本事件之间的关系,利用概率计算理论求解土石坝溃决概率,同时引用改进层次分析法,分析各基本事件对大坝溃决的影响程度,可较好地确定各基本事件的概率权重。以陆浑水库大坝为例进行安全评价,对数学模型进行验证,结果表明该模型的模拟计算结果与目前对大坝安全评价的结论较吻合。
The basic events for the safety of earth-rockfill dams were studied. A mathematical model for the safety assessment of earth-rock dams was developed. The model directly depicted the relationship among various basic events. The probability of breaking of earth-rockfill dams was solved by use of the theory of probability. The improved analytic hierarchy process method was employed to analyze the influences of the basic events on dam breaking. The probability weights of the basic events could be satisfactorily determined. Luhun Dam safety assessment was taken as an example, and the mathematical model was validated. The model results show that the simulated results agree with the current conclusions of dam safety assessment.
出处
《水利水电科技进展》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第2期58-62,共5页
Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources
基金
河南省教育厅自然科学研究计划项目(2008A570006)
