国际金融危机对河北省就业影响的实证分析与预测

Empirical analysis and forecast on the influence of international financial crisis on employment in Hebei Province

国际金融危机导致出口萎缩,出口部门就业减少。利用河北省1989-2008年的时间序列数据,实证检验分析了出口和第二产业就业之间的数量关系,验证了金融危机影响工业部门就业的事实。同时与中国各地区和东南亚国家之间的历史数据作了横向的比较验证,结果具有明显的一致性。在对地区历史数据的回归和地区之间数据的比较基础上,对此次国际金融危机对河北省就业的影响做了影响幅度和持续时间的大致预测。

International financial crisis influences employment directly with export decrease.And in 1997 the east Asia financial crisis has seen an evident witness,namely,during which export decreased and unemployment rose.Along this clue,with the time series data from 1989 to 2008 in Hebei province,the fact that financial crisis leads to unemployment by reducing export was testified.And the quantity relation between export and employment was clarified.The result was consistent to the general facts of other provinces in China mainland and agrees to some foreign researches.Based on the result,how many and how long will the financial crisis influence employment of Hebei province was forecasted approximately.