浅析利率政策作用下的我国居民经济行为

On Economic Behavior of Residents in China under the Role of Interest Rate Policy

长期以来,利率政策对我国居民经济行为的调节作用并不显著。从1996—2005年,国内利率持续下降,当时的居民人均消费水平并没有取得显著增长,而人均储蓄增长率一直居高不下。低收入、不健全的信贷体制、不确定性、流动性陷阱等因素是造成当时低利率弹性的主要原因。2005年以来,国内利率不断提高,当时的人均储蓄增长率并未大幅提高,而居民人均消费水平反而有所提高。原因是消费能力的过度释放、不动产和金融资产投资的非理性,使得居民经济行为对央行发布的利率价格信号不敏感。

The interest rate policy on the regulation of economic behavior of residents in China has not been significant over the years.Domestic interest rate had continued to decline and per capita consumption level had not achieved remarkably,in turn,per capita savings rate had been high from 1996 to 2005.Low-income,unsound credit system,uncertainty,liquidity trap and other factors contributed to low interest rate elasticity.Domestic interest rate had risen,and the per capita savings rate had not increased significantly,while the per capita consumption level had improved since 2005.The excessive release of consumption ability and non-rational economic behaviors in real estate and financial assets investment made the residents not sensitive to rate price announced by central bank.