基于生态足迹改进模型的乌鲁木齐市可持续发展定量分析

Quantitative Analysis of Sustainable Development of Urumqi City Based on Modified Eco-footprint Model

【目的】基于乌鲁木齐市1997～2016年人均生态足迹与人均生态承载力的变化趋势和差异，分析该市可持续发展的能力。【方法】计算人均生态足迹和生态承载力的变化率及剪刀差。【结果】（1）1997～2016年乌鲁木齐市人均生态足迹和生态承载力，基本呈反向发展趋势分别从2．739hm^2增加到9．850hm^2和人均生态赤字2016年是1997年的4．35倍；（2）1997～2016年乌鲁木齐市人均生态足迹和生态承载力变化趋势差异以2000年为界先减小后增大，生态环境形式不容乐观。【结论】乌鲁木齐市可持续发展形势十分严峻，可在增加生态承载力供给的同时控制生态足迹需求，从而提高该市的可持续发展能力。

[ Objective ] Based on the tendencies and differences of EF and EC time series of Urumqi, the sustainable development ability were analyzed. [ Method]The change rates and scissors difference of per capita EF and EC were calculated. [Result] （1）In Urumqi, trends of the per capita EF and EC tend to opposite direction development trend from 1997 to 2016. The EF per capita increased from 2.739 hm^2 in 1997 to 9.850 hm^2 in 2016, while the EC per capita decreased over years from 0.527 to 0.235 hm^2. Meanwhile, the ecological deficit in 2016 will be 4.35 times greater than that of in 1997. （2）In Urumqi, the scissors difference between the trends of EF an EC time series had been decreasing until 2000, and began to rise after the year. This growth direction is not what we expected, with the aspect of ecological equilibrium. [ Conclusion ] In order to enhance the sustainable development ability of Urumqi, we can enlarge the supplies of EC and control the needs of EF.