东北玉米热量指数预测方法研究(Ⅲ)——GM(1,1)预测方法

Study on Forecasting Methods of Corn Heat Index in Northeastern China(Ⅲ)——GM(1,1) Forecasting Model

GM(1,1)是开展时间序列环境要素变化趋势预测的有效方法之一。通过对东北地区玉米热量指数的分析,建立了热量指数时间变化趋势的GM(1,1)预测模型,各模型的平均预测精度虽低于逐步回归统计模型,但也都达91%以上,可以应用该模型的预测结果指导农业生产。

GM （1, 1 ） is one of the effective methods for forecasting changing tendency of environmental factors. On the basis of corn heat index analysis in Northeastern China, the GM（ 1, 1 ） forecasting model of corn heat index changing tendency is set up. The mean precision of each model is lower than that of stepwise regression models, but the mean precision is higher than 91%. The forecasting results of GM （ 1, 1 ） can be used to instruct agricultural production.