内蒙古呼伦贝尔市草原火灾危害度评价及预测

Assessment and Prediction of Grassland Fire Disaster in Hulunbeir

以呼伦贝尔市1994-2005年的草原火灾为研究对象,基于灰色关联度法、系统聚类分析法,引用草原火灾危害度指数(HI),对每年草原火灾危害度进行评价,并借助灰色灾变预测法对危害度大的年份进行预测,预测到未来2个危害度大的年份是2014、2026年。

Based on the gray correlation method and systematic clustering analysis, taking the grassland fire disasters in Hulunbeir from 1994 to 2005 as study object, the grassland fire hazard degrees each year are evaluated by use of grassland fire hazard degree index （HI）. Gray prediction method is used to predict the year of greater hazards. It is expected that this study can provide the governments with a scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation.