考虑设备性能退化的船用热力系统多阶段任务可靠性

Ship thermodynamic system phased mission reliability in view of equipment performance degradtion

设备的性能总是随着工作时间的增加而退化,但退化的速度是随机的,含有性能退化设备的热力系统在特定的使用阶段上,能否定成预定任务,对设备使用和维修管理决策至关重要。在船舶蒸汽动力系统中,设备本身性能储备、冗余和互备的工作方式以及多样化的设备特征参数,导致按照传统的可靠性计算方法直接解算系统的多阶段任务可靠度十分困难。为此,以朗肯循环的典型设备所构成的热力系统为例,基于设备性能退化模型和朗肯循环的热力模型,采用Monte Carlo仿真方法分析了典型系统的多阶段任务可靠度。研究表明:该方法能够解决具有设备性能退化特点的复杂热力系统的任务可靠性分析问题。

With the time increasing,equipment performance will degenerate,but the speed of dege-neration is stochastic.It is import for equipment users and repair managers whether the system with performance degeneration equipment can finish scheduled mission in a certain mission phases.In ship steam power system,considering equipment performance reserve,redundant work pattern,and variegated equipment characteristic parameters,it is very difficult to calculate the system mission reliability directly with the traditional reliability calculation method.The paper took Rankine cycle thermodynamic system composed of typical equipment for example.Based on equipment performance degradation model and Rankine cycle thermodynamic model,Monte Carlo simulation method was used to analyze typical system phased mission reliability.The result demonstrates that the method can be used to solve the complex thermodynamic system mission reliability analysis problem in the conditions of equipment performance degeneration.