人民币实际汇率与中国进出口贸易结构变迁(1997～2007年)——基于多种模型的动态分析

Real Exchange Rate of RMB and International Trade Structure of China:1997～2007

为分析人民币实际汇率对中国进出口贸易结构变迁的影响,基于1997～2007年季度SITC二位数水平下的中国进出口贸易面板数据、人民币实际汇率和中国及其贸易伙伴GDP季节时序数据,本文对相关变量进行了异质面板和单时序季节单整和协整检验,并进一步构建异质面板季节误差修正模型,对人民币实际汇率对中国进出口贸易结构变迁的长短期动态影响进行了实证分析,并针对中国当前的对外经贸和宏观经济发展现状提出了相应的政策建议。

We apply the heterogeneous panel seasonal unit root test （CHEGY- IPS） to panel quarterly data of trade and seasonal unit root test （HEGY） to time serial quarterly data of GDP of China and its trade partners and real exchange rate of RMB for the period from 1997 to 2007. Then we apply the heterogeneous panel seasonal cointegration test to trade and related variables. Based on the above results of test, we construct panel seasonal error correction model to make an empirical a- nalysis of long- term and short - term dynamic influences of real exchange rate of RMB on changes of trade structures of import and export of China. Finally, we make policy suggestions according to current situation of foreign trade and macro e- conomy of China based on our conclusions.