城市化水平与旅游发展之关系初探——基于我国改革开放三十年的时间序列动态计量分析

STUDY ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN URBANIZATION AND TOURISM DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF CHINA: A DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF CHRONOLOGICAL DATA FROM 1978

为了探求城市化水平与旅游发展之间的真实关系,本文以中国作为研究对象,将国际旅游收入和城市化率作为旅游发展水平和城市化水平的解释性指标,从时间序列角度出发,尝试构建两者间的关系模型。通过单位根检验,找到最佳的时间滞后期对数据进行平稳性的差分处理。得出结论为,中国城市化水平与旅游发展水平在滞后二期的情况下最为理想。在此基础上,为构建模型的合理性,进行格兰杰因果检验,但结果显示,两者不存在显著的互为因果的关系,即从长期来看,无稳定联系。最后文章对结果进行讨论并分析其产生的原因。

It is generally considered that the tourism development would accelerate the process of urbanization and vice versa. This paper uses quantitative method, which has not been adopted in the previous studies, to examine the relationship between urbanization and tourism development in the context of China which is an international tourist destination. Using the data from 1978, when the open-up policy was implemented in china, to 2007, and analyzing the data with econometric methods including cointegration, Granger causality tests and variance decomposition, the authors set up a model of the relationship between urbanization and tourism development. The proportion of urban population is assumed to indicate the level of the urbanization and the foreign exchange earnings from international tourism is assumed to reveal the level of development of the tourism industry. The result of unit-root test shows that it is ideal for China if there is a lag of 2 years between tourism development and urbanization. That means the development of tourism industry should have 2 years later than urbanization. So, it indicates that there appears to be the incoordination between revenue of foreign exchange from tourism industry and the growth of urban population. The long-term analysis shows that long-term relationship of equilibrium between the development of tourism industry and urbanization does not exist. Furthermore, the researchers apply the Granger causality tests to examine the rationality of the model. The result indicates that there is no causality between tourism development and urbanization in China. Moreover, the authors analyze why Granger causality tests fail to demonstrate the result of the previous research. The reasons include （1） the restriction of the samples and the data; （2） the imbalance development in China; （3） the government oriented development strategies for the tourism industry, and （4） the highly sensitive nature of tourism industry.