经济全球化背景下影响我国价格总水平的因素分析

An Analysis on Factors of Effect on China′s General Level of Price under Globalization

在中国加入WTO和改革汇率形成机制之后,经常项目和资本项目双顺差持续大规模扩大,经济出现内外失衡,在此背景下2007年中国发生了一次严重的通货膨胀。经济失衡对价格总水平的影响和国内外经济因素对价格的共同冲击是当前我国价格总水平异常波动的重要特征。本文基于经济全球化体系下经济失衡的背景分析了我国当前价格波动的影响因素,同时利用DOLS方法对这些因素的冲击效应进行了经验研究,在理论分析和经验研究的基础上提出了缓解我国价格总水平出现异常波动压力的短期、中期和长期对策建议。

Since China became a member of WTO and reformed RMB exchange rate mechanism,both of the surplus of current account and capital account had been enlarged,and China suffered a serious inflation in 2007 under its economic imbalances.Both of the shocks of economic imbalance and external and internal economic factors on China′s prices level are the most important reasons of the fluctuation of China′s general level of prices.The paper analyzes the factors which shocked the China′s prices fluctuation under economic imbalances in globalization via DOLS,and then proposes the short-term,medium-term and long-term policies.