美元国际循环问题的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis on Dollar Circumfluence

在现行国际货币体系下,美元国际循环模式与世界经济运行特征交互作用。本文在对美元国际循环机制进行探讨的基础上,运用协整检验、因果关系检验、广义脉冲响应函数等时间序列方法检验美国的外债和经常账户之间的关系。结果显示:20世纪80年代中期以来,美元以经常账户逆差的形式流向世界,并以购买美元债券和美元金融资产的方式流回美国,形成美元国际循环链条。这种循环模式在很大程度上取决于美元本位制是否可持续,并在长期内面临越来越严峻的挑战进而难以为继。

Essentially,current international monetary system is a dollar standard one,in which the pattern of U.S..dollar circumfluence abroad and the characters of world economic circulation affect each other.This paper tests the relationship between the current account deficits and NIIP(net international investment position) in U.S..It discovers that,in the middle of 1980′s,trade is the issue channel of dollar and finance is the withdrawal channel.Dollar circumfluence exists and largely depends on the sustainability of dollar standard.It is suggested that the dollar standard should sustain in a short period of time,but not for long.