原产地规则的经济效应研究

Economic Effects of Rules of Origin

原产地规则是国际贸易中的核心规则之一,深刻地影响着国际贸易的发展。本文通过使用经典的包络方法对原产地规则的经济效应进行了深入分析,将原产地规则的经济效应具体分为"最终产品产量减少效应"、"中间投入品强制增加效应"以及"中间投入品替代效应"三种子效应。然后,在模型分析的基础上,以我国汽车零部件的原产地规则为例对三种子效应进行了具体分析。最后得出结论,原产地规则的核心在于提高中间投入品的本地化含量。一方面由于"最终产品产量减少效应",最终产品总产量趋于减少;另一方面,原产地规则通过"中间投入品强制增加效应"和"中间投入品替代效应"对中间投入品行业产生影响。

Rules of Origin are the core rules in the international trade,which affect the development of international trade significantly.This paper analyzes the economic effects of Rules of Origin in depth by classical Envelope Method,and divides the economic effects into three sub-effects which are 'the effect of final product yield reduction','the effect of intermediate inputs being forced to increase' and 'the effect of intermediate inputs substitution'.Then,based on the model,the paper analyzes the three sub-effects specifically in the example of Rules of Origin of China′s auto parts.Finally we concludes that the core of Rules of Origin is to increase the localization content of intermediate inputs.On the one hand,because of 'the effect of final product yield reduction',the final product tends to decrease.On the other hand,because of 'the effect of intermediate inputs being forced to increase' and 'the effect of intermediate inputs substitution',the Rules of Origin affect the intermediate inputs sectors.