气候舒适度与年内客流量逐月变化相关性分析——以舟山为例

The Relevant Analysis between Climate Comfort Level and Tourist Number Change by Month of ZhouShan

人体对气候的感知结果是影响游客是否出游主观意愿的重要因素,游客对气候的感知及这种感知的持续时间,直接影响到旅游季节的长短及客流量的多少,进而影响一个地区的旅游收入。根据1971-2008年舟山定海气象站的观测资料,首先对舟山市气候的舒适性进行了评价;接下来结合近3年客流量的逐月变化,计算了客流量的月指数,并划分了旅游活动的淡旺季;利用回归分析的方法建立了客流量月指数与气候舒适度指数之间的函数关系。结果显示:入境游客年内变化主要受气候影响,国际客流量与气候舒适度指数的相关性系数为0.875;国内旅游不仅受气候舒适性影响,还受一些节假日的影响,国内客流量月指数与气候舒适度指数的相关性系数为0.935。本项研究为舟山市客流量年内变化预测、景区管理、旅游地开发提供科学依据。

The sensation to climate is an important factor which influences people＇s wish for tour.The sensation and the lasted time influence the length of tour season and tour quantity,then the income.;On the base of statistics about meteorological from 1971 to 2008 and tourist number in three years,the article evaluates Zhoushan＇s climate,calculates the index in every month and distinguishes the low and peak season;it establishes function by regression analysis.The results showed： International tourism is mainly affected by climate.Correlation coefficient between international tourists index by month and climate comfort index is 0.935;Domestic tourism is mainly affected by both climate and holidays.The correlation coefficient between them is 0.967.The research provides a scientific basis for us to forecast tourist number changes during the year、scenic spot managment and tourism exploitation.