台湾政党再次轮替的深层原因

On the Deep Roots of Taiwan's Second Power Turnover

台湾在2008年出现第二次政党轮替的深层原因是民进党未能解决政治贪腐和经济衰退这两项选民最关心的议题。2005年"三合一"地方选举是民进党"由盛转衰"的分水岭。2008年1月的"立法院"选举,初次采取以小区单席为主、政党比例代表为辅的制度,放大了国民党和民进党的得票悬殊,在"立法院"形成"一大一小"的席次格局,为台湾政党的再次轮替埋下了重要伏笔。在2008年最高领导人选举中,民进党候选人既无法有效整合内部的派系结构,也无法摆脱扁案和激进"台独"路线的困扰,争取中间选民的支持,从而导致了台湾政党的再次轮替。

Taiwan＇s second power turnover in 2008 is fundamentally due to the Democratic Progressive Party （DPP）＇s inability of resolving the issue of political corruption and economic recession, the two issues most concerning the ordinary voters. The ＂three-in-one＂ local elections in 2005 served as a watershed, indicating the DPP＇s declining influence in Taiwan Residents politics. The January 2008 elections of Taiwan＇s Legislative Yuan under the single-member district electoral system supplemented by the mechanism of party proportional representation has exaggerated the gap between the Kuomintang （KMT） and the DPP in their votes during the elections, resulting an extremely asymmetric power structure in the Legislative Yuan, with the KMT accounting for three quarters of seats. During the March 2008 elections, the DPP＇s candidate for the supreme leadership cannot in- tegrate the party＇s internal factions and reduce the negative impacts of Chen Shui-bian＇s scandal. Sticking to the radical line for Taiwan independence, the party failed to win support from votes in the political center,thus resulting in the second power turnover between different parties on the island.