三党互动对两岸关系影响研究——基于战略三角分析法

The Influence of Tri-Party Interactions on Cross-Strait Relations:A Research Based on "Strategic Triangle Theory"

两岸主要政党——中国共产党、中国国民党和民主进步党——之间的互动,对两岸关系产生着重要的影响。借助战略三角分析法可以看到,2005年以来,三党间形成了"稳定婚姻"的三角格局,共产党和国民党在这个"三角"中扮演着"伙伴"的角色,而民进党则成为"孤鸡",但这种格局并不利于两岸关系发展。如果共产党积极发展同民进党的关系,那么两岸三党格局将朝"浪漫三角"演变。在这个新格局中,共产党的角色将会从先前的"伙伴"提升到"枢纽",这对抑制台湾分裂势力发展、加速两岸统一具有重要的现实意义。

The interactions among three major parties across the Taiwan Strait Chinese Communist Party （CCP）, Kuo Min Tang （KMT）and Democratic Progressive Party （DPP）have imposed significant influence on the cross - strait relations. Based on ＂strategic triangle theory＂, relationship among the three parties could be interpreted as ＂stable marriage＂ partnerships since 2005. With CCP and KMT played as ＂partner＂ roles and DPP as ＂outcast＂ within the framework, the current pattern may hardly bring mutual benefit to relations across the Taiwan Strait in the long run. If more active movement towards DPP could be initiated by CCP, then a ＂romantic triangle＂ partnership will be within reach. As a result, CCP will earn itself a ＂pivot＂ position in substantially opposing Taiwan＇s secession from China and promoting peaceful national reunification.