2008年北京奥运会期间污染控制效果数值模拟--以个例分析为例

Simulation of the Impact of Air Pollution Source Control Measures during the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games:A Case Study

利用2007和2008年北京地区空气质量监测资料和NCEP再分析资料,分析了北京地区空气动力学当量直径小于等于10μm颗粒物(PM10)污染过程与天气形势及天气系统之间的关系。结果表明:西太平洋热带气旋路径对北京地区发生PM10污染具有预示作用,即当热带气旋北上并在朝鲜半岛或日本登陆的情况下,北京地区一般受持续均压场等弱中尺度天气系统控制,这种中尺度天气系统不利于污染物的扩散,因此北京地区经常发生区域性的PM10空气污染事件。在2007年9次台风北上登陆朝鲜半岛或日本的过程中,北京地区伴随发生了9次PM10污染过程,预示准确率达100%,2008年的预示准确率也达到了80%以上。为了说明北京奥运会期间污染控制措施对改善北京空气质量有实际效果,利用中国科学院大气物理研究所区域空气质量模式NAQPMS,采用无控制措施源和有控制措施源,对2008年北京残奥会期间一次西太平洋北上型热带气旋天气条件下的空气质量状况进行了数值模拟试验,揭示了此次过程北京地区未发生PM10空气污染的原因。

The relationship between the synoptic pattern and particle matter less than 10 μm（PM10） air pollution episode in Beijing area is analyzed by utilizing air quality monitoring data and NCEP reanalysis data.It is indicated that the track of the western Pacific tropical cyclone can foretell whether a PM10 air pollution episode will happen in Beijing area,namely when the tropical cyclone moves northward and finally lands on the Korean Peninsula or Japanese mainland,a PM10 air pollution episode most possibly happens in one day or several days in Beijing area,e.g.,there are nine and five PM10 pollution episodes occurring under such synoptic conditions in 2007 and 2008,respectively. In order to evaluate the actual impact of air pollution source control measures on the amelioration of air quality during the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games,one case study is performed by using NAQPMS/IAP model under both control and non-control emission scenarios,and then the impact of air pollution source control measures is revealed.