改革、开放与中国经济增长的传导机制——基于联立方程模型的估计

Transitional Mechanism of Reform,Opening-Up and Chinese Economic Growth——Based on Estimation of Simuitaneous Equation Model

中国经济保持30年快速增长的原因一般被归结为改革、开放的推动。然而,实证分析表明,改革、开放与经济增长是一个单向传导的系统,改革是中国经济增长的内在原因,开放尤其是FDI则是经济增长引致的结果,而不是动因。开放的作用在于为深化改革带来外部压力,迫使改革进一步深化,间接地为维持经济持续增长提供动力。因此,继续深化改革,尤其是打破城乡壁垒,构建城乡统一、高效的要素市场,是经济增长的原动力,而开放应作为选择性政策,视改革进程的难易,相机抉择开放力度。

Since 1978,the effect of 30-year growth of Chinese economy was attributed to the promotion of reform and opening up.However,the empirical analysis shows that the reform,opening up and economic growth is a one-way transmission system,the reform is the real reason of the growth,and opening up-FDI in particular is the result of growth,rather than driving forces.The role of opening up is to deepen the reform by an external pressure.When the reform is difficult to carry out,it will be the force to further deepen reform,then as an indirect power to maintain economic growth.Therefore,continue to deepen,especially to break the barriers between urban and rural areas,and build a unified and efficient elements market will be the driving force behind economic growth.As opening up is a selective open policy,the degree of open policy should be based on the degree of reform process.