西部城市人均经济增长的面板数据测度及理论分析

Panel Data Measurement on Per-Capita Economic Growth of Western Cities and Theoretic Analysis

西部城市经济处于快速稳定增长的阶段。本文运用人均财政收入、人均GDP和相应的人均指数增长率测度城市经济发展水平和增长趋势。人均财政收入和人均GDP作为经济发展水平的两个重要参数。同时,论文采用人均财政收入作为经济发展水平的排序依据,是因为财政收入与GDP直接相关,且前者有更强的约束性和可靠性。在论文中,论文运用1998-2007年10年的人口、地方财政收入、GDP数据,西部48个城市的人均地方财政收入、人均GDP分3组进行面板数据测度,测度了人均GDP对人均地方财政收入的贡献率,人均地方财政收入年增长率和人均GDP年增长率。测度结果表明,人均财政收入年增长率、人均GDP对人均财政收入的贡献率是城市经济发展的良性指标。测度结果表明,西部城市经济的规模效应表现为两种,一种是超大城市规模公共服务的人口规模效应,一种是中等城市的优势主导产业的产业规模效应。同时,西部城市经济发展水平差距很大。低水平发展的城市宜调整发展战略,并得到相关的政策支持。

Western-China cities are on the period of fast and stable growth.To measure Western cities＇ economic development level and growth trend,per capita budgetary income,per capita GDP and correspondent annual growth index are applied.Per capita budgetary income and per capita GDP are used as the two indicative parameters of economic development level.Per capita budgetary income is the ranking criterion of cities,since it has more strict restriction in public economy.Based on the data of population,local budgetary income,and local GDP in the period of 1998-2007,48 cities are divided into three groups as the objects of panel data measurement.The contribution rate of per capita GDP to per capita budgetary income,the annual growth rate of per capita budgetary income,and the annual rate of per capita GDP are measured.The results indicate that,the annual growth of per capita budgetary income,the contribution rate of per capita GDP to per capita budgetary income are positive benign indicator of urban economic development.Yet the positiveness of annual growth rate of per capita GDP needs careful analysis based on particular situations.Research indicates that,the scale economy in western-China cities has two forms： super large cities exploited the advantages of the scale economy of the scale of public services,while the medium-sized cities would exploit the scale economy of dominant dominant industries.There are great differences on economic development level among western-China cities.Cities with comparatively lower development level should adjust the growth strategy,and need corresponding public policy support.