1978-2006年甘肃产业结构演进分析

Evolution of industrial structure of Gansu Province from 1978-2006

以1978-2006年统计数据为基础,采用产业经济学、计量经济学和统计学的相关方法,对甘肃省改革开放以来的产业结构演进进行了定量分析,对其与同期全国产业结构演进进行了比较。研究结果表明,1978年以来,甘肃与全国产业结构演进存在差异,主要表现为:甘肃第二产业比重明显偏低,第三产业比重偏高;甘肃产业产值比重与就业比重不均衡度明显高于全国,近年有扩大趋势;甘肃的产业结构转换速度缓慢,且主要依赖第三产业的推动,转换方向不尽合理;甘肃经济增长结构效应在减弱,增长结构中夕阳产业比重高,比较优势产业竞争力有所提高。

Based on the statistical data from 1978 to 2006 and by using such indices as the entropy status of the regional industrial structure, similarity index in industrial structure, deviation degree and deviation factor of industrial structure of employment, conversion speed coefficient of the industrial structure and directional coefficient, this paper makes a quantitative analysis on dynamic evolution characteristics, such as the overall features of Gansu Province＇s industrial structure evolution, evolution stages , industrial structure of employment, conversion speed of the industrial structure and its shift-share since 1978, with the method of shift-share analysis. The results are as follows： Gansu＇s industrial structure evolution can generally be divided into three phases （1978 -1987,1988 -1997, 1998 -2006）. Gansu＇s industrial structure has entered a low-level and orderly state after three times industrial structure evolution. Compared with national fndustrial structure, there are a lot of similarities in Gansu＇s industrial structure, but similarities were decreased （ from 0. 999 in 1986 to 0. 924 in 2005 ）. And deviation factor of Gansu＇ s industrial structure of employment, in general, kept decreasing （from 641.4 in 1985 to 334.8 in 2004 ）, but it has increased a lot in recent years and reached 415 in both 2005 and 2006. In addition, it finds that there have been some differences in evolution of industrial structure between Gansu and the whole nation since 1978. The main features are as follows ： Firstly, the secondary industry proportion of Gansu was obviously lower and the tertiary industry proportion was higher than the national level. Secondly, imbalance between the proportions of and employment in Gansu was evidently higher than that of the whole nation, which has enlarged output value in the recent years. And there is a striking dual structure between towns and countries in Gansu. Thirdly, its conversion speed of the industrial structure was rather slow and such changes were mainly dependent on the promotion of the tertiary industry, which was quite unreasonable. Lastly, the effects of its economic growth structure have been decreasing and sunset industry took a high proportion in economic growth. Fortunately, its competitiveness of comparative advantage industry has been enhanced a lot. Great efforts should be made to improve the optimization and fully develop the secondary industry, so that it can promote the development of the primary industry and tertiary industry, which should be the future direction of industrial restructure of Gansu Province.