通货膨胀预期与宏观经济稳定:1995—2008——基于动态随机一般均衡模型的分析

Inflation Expectation and Macro-Economy Stability:1995—2008——Analysis Based on the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium

当前全球性量化宽松的货币政策使通货膨胀预期形成的可能性增大,势必给正处于恢复性上涨阶段的各国经济蒙上一层阴影,并对今后一段时间内宏观经济稳定产生复杂而深刻的影响。本文构建了一个开放经济条件下多部门的动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE),识别和分析了影响中国宏观经济波动的六种可能冲击(通胀预期偏差冲击、技术增长率冲击、政府购买力冲击、劳动力供给冲击、国际贸易冲击以及货币政策冲击),并在此基础上,重点研究了通货膨胀预期偏差冲击对宏观经济波动的影响。研究显示,通货膨胀预期偏差冲击通过改变微观个体对未来通货膨胀的预期,影响经济中均衡的风险利率和无风险利率,进而对宏观经济波动产生影响。具体来看,通胀预期偏差冲击对一定时期内的宏观经济有显著负效应,能解释大约20%的产出和消费波动、大约50%的投资和就业波动。这表明,通胀预期对于宏观经济稳定有重要意义。因此,政府在执行包括货币政策在内的宏观调控政策时,要充分考虑通货膨胀预期对政策执行效力的可能影响,并利用各种平台加强与公众沟通,扩大政策透明度,减少信息不对称所带来的预期偏差,还要增强不同政策工具的信号功能,通过不同政策工具的艺术性搭配,积极引导公众预期向预定的政策目标接近。

With quantitative easing monetary policy globally prevailing,it is more likely that the inflation expectation comes true,which casts shadows on the rebounding world economy and has sophisticated and profound effect on the stability of macro-economy from now on. We built an open-economy and multi-sector model under the framework of DSGE, and identified six exogenous shocks from labor supply, technology growth, trade surplus, government purchase, monetary policy, inflation expectation. On the basis of this model, our research focused on effect of inflation expectation error shock on the fluctuation of macro-economy. The results of this research shows that inflation expectation error shock influences the risk interest rate and non-risk interest rate by altering the inflation expectation of agents, resulting in the fluctuation of macro-economy. Specifically, inflation expectation shock can explain 20 percentage of output and consumption fluctuation, 50 percentage of investment and employment fluctuation, which indicates the important role of inflation expectation in stability of macro-economy. Therefore, when government implements the policy of the macroscopic adjustment and control which includes monetary policy, it should consider the effect of inflation expectation of agents, make active communication with agents by different channels, enlarge transparency of policy,decrease the extent to which inflation error results from asymmetry information,strengthens the signaling function ot different policy instruments, and guides the expectation of agents by the match of different policy instruments delicately.