面向运行规划可靠性的综合聚类负荷模型

Integrative K-means Clustering Based Load Model for Operational Planning Reliability Evaluation

针对目前运行规划可靠性评估中负荷模型的不足,提出了一种综合聚类负荷模型,该模型能综合考虑负荷节点的特征量信息,分类精度显著提高。对研究时段内的多个负荷水平进行综合聚类的基础上采用多维正态分布抽样技术,计及节点负荷相关性和负荷预测标准差,确定评估期间的节点负荷值。在负荷分类基础上结合累积概率负荷模型,推导了停电频率指标的计算公式,解决了非序贯仿真中考虑负荷转移的频率计算问题。通过算例,分析了负荷分类、负荷预测不确定性、节点负荷相关性和负荷转移频率对可靠性指标的影响,验证了模型的正确性和有效性。

In light of the inadequacy of the currently used conventional load model for reliability assessment,this paper proposes a new integrative K-means clustering algorithm that takes into account the load characteristics information. Based on the clustering algorithm while considering the bus loads correlation and load forecasting uncertainty,this model adopts the multi-dimensional correlation sampling technique to determine the bus load in the evaluation period. Based on the proposed load model and cumulative probability load model,a new method for frequency index calculation with load shifting taken into account is deduced,solving the problem of frequency index calculation in non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation. Finally,the effects of number of clustering,bus load correlation,load forecast uncertainty and load shifting on reliability indices are discussed and compared by case studies. The feasibility and rationality of the proposed algorithm are proved.