市场环境及CO_2排放政策变化下的发电投资决策

Generation Investment Decision-Making at the Change of Electricity Market and CO_2 Emission Policy

为探讨CO2排放政策以及运营过程中的一些不确定性因素对火力发电投资决策的影响,根据各种不确定性因素的变化特征,建立了相应的数学模型,并利用期权博弈理论,构造了一个新的发电投资决策方法框架.在假定发电投资依次进行的基础上,发展了基于Barraquand-Martineau(B-M)期权定价模型的求解方法.最后,用仿真算例对所提出的方法进行了说明.算例分析结果表明,所发展的模型框架能够合理容纳多个不确定性因素,适当模拟规划期内多个发电公司在市场状态随机变化情况下的动态博弈过程.

In order to reveal the effects of CO2 emission policy and some other uncertain factors in the operation process on the investment decision-making of thermal power plants, a mathematical model considering the variations of the uncertain factors is established, and a new methodological framework of generation investment decision-ma- king is developed based on the option game theory. Then, on the assumption that the generation investment in different generation companies are performed sequentially, a solution based on the Barraquand-Martineau （B-M） option pricing model is presented. Finally, the proposed method is illustrated by a simulation. Numerical results indicate that the proposed framework well considers multiple uncertain factors and simulates the dynamic game process of thermal power plants in the planning period in stochastically-varied market environments.