现行人民币汇率制度的可持续性探析——兼论“中间汇率制度消失论”

The Sustainability of the Current RMB Exchange Rate Regime: An Analysis Based on the Hypothesis of"Vanishing Intermediary Exchange Rate Regime"

近年来兴起的"中间汇率制度消失论"已成为主流经济学界判断发展中国家汇率制度选择的主要理论依据。它建议发展中国家应实行汇率制度的端点解。通过对当前人民币汇率制度可持续性进行分析,证实现阶段中国的货币政策管理水平、经济结构调整、就业压力以及金融市场不完善等现状不允许中国在中短期内实行"端点"汇率制度;现行的人民币"软钉住"美元的汇率政策应是当前以及未来相当长时期内中国的最佳选择。

The hypothesis of＂vanishing intermediary exchange rate regime＂has been used by the main stream of economics to justify the exchange rate regime selection for developing countries.The hypothesis suggests that developing countries should adopt the＂corner solution＂of exchange regime.This paper analyzes the sustainability of China＇s current exchange regime by focusing on the feasibility of＂corner solution＂in China and concludes that it is infeasible for China under the circumstance of low level of monetary policy implementation,the economic structural adjustment,employment pressure and the imperfect financial system.The current exchange rate regime of ＂soft pegging＂to dollar is the best choice for China both currently and in the near future.