塔里木河流域城市化与水资源利用关系分析

Correlation Between Urbanization and Water Resources Utilization in the Tarim River Basin

比较分析塔里木河流域1990—2005年城市化水平、用水总量、产业结构、用水效益的变化过程,建立城市化水平与用水效益、用水总量之间的数学关系。结果表明,城市化水平与用水效益呈线性增长关系,随着城市化进程的推进和产业结构的升级,塔里木河流域及各市用水效益都在不断提高;水资源对城市化进程存在明显的约束作用,塔里木河流域的城市化水平与用水总量之间对数增长关系不明显;总结归纳了塔里木河流域城市发展与水资源利用之间初级矛盾、扩张矛盾、适应矛盾、适应协调4个发展阶段特征。今后需调整产业结构,建立集约的水资源利用体系,调整水资源利用与城市发展关系由矛盾状态为适应协调状态,缓解水资源对城市化进程的约束。

The changes of urbanization level, total water utilization, industrial structure and water utilization benefits in the Tarim River basin from 1990 to 2005 were analyzed, and then the relationship between urbanization level and water utilization benefits, total water utilization were analyzed in the paper. Results show that the relationship between urbanization level and water utilization benefits could be simulated by linear equation. With the urbanization and upgrading of industrial structure, water utilization benefits improved. There was a weak logarithmic relationship between urbanization level and total water utilization in the Tarim River basin because the deficiency of water resources restricted the expansion of urbanization. The evolution process of relationship between urbanization and water utilization can be divided into four stages： formation of contradiction, intensification of contradiction, mutual adjustment, coordination. In order to construct a coordinating relationship between water resources utilization and urban development, the industrial structure should be reconstructed, and an intensive water resources utilization system should be build in the Tarim River basin.