黄河龙羊峡以上河段径流系列代表性分析论证

Analysis of the runoff series representativeness of the Upper Yellow River above Longyangxia hydropower station

以唐乃亥站为例,取其1919—2004年共计86 a的年径流系列,采用距平分析、周期分析、长短系列统计特征分析和分形分析方法,进行黄河上游龙羊峡以上径流系列的代表性分析论证。结果表明:唐乃亥站1919—2004年径流系列丰、枯等级为"平水"。几种代表性分析方法的结果,得到的具有一定代表性的子系列不一致。从年径流丰、平、枯水年组对称性来看,1928—2004年径流系列中丰、平、枯水年组对称性较好,某种意义上说,唐乃亥站1928—2004年共77 a的径流子系列具有较好的代表性。因此,建议采用1928—2004年的径流系列作为黄河龙羊峡以上河段梯级水电站工程设计的依据。

Taking Tangnaihe hydrological station for example, its 86a runoff series of 1919--2004 was used to analyze and justify the runoff series representativeness of the Upper Yellow River above Longyangxia hydropower station by means of anomaly analysis, period- ic analysis, statistical features analysis of long ＆ short series and fractal analysis. The results show that the grade of wet and dry runoff series from 1919--2004 at Tangnaihe hydrological station is ＂mean water＂. As a result of several representative analyses, the obtained representative sub - series are inconsistent. Viewing from the symmetry of wet, mean and dry year groups of annual runoff, the symme- try of wet, mean and dry year groups of 1928--2004 annual runoff series is good. In a sense, the sub - series of 77a （1928--2004） runoff at Tangnaihe hydrological station is of good representativeness. Therefore, it is suggested that the annual runoff series from 1928--2004 be used as the design basis for cascade projects on the Upper Yellow River above Longyangxia hydropower station.