基于SD模型的新疆奇台县水资源的优化配置研究

Optimal allocation of water resources of Qitai in Xinjiang based on SD

利用系统动力学对新疆奇台县水资源的供需状况进行了深入研究,根据该地区的特点建立水资源系统动力学仿真模型。通过该模型对奇台县2010年、2020年的需水量进行预测和分析,提出高、中、低三个方案,并进一步分析比较得出了适合于该县经济和环境协调发展的综合方案,从而为决策者提供科学的决策依据。

System dynamics（SD）was used for further studying the water resource supporting capacity of Qitai in Xinjiang.According to the characteristics of the area,the system dynamics imitating model of water resource supporting capacity of Qitai country was built.The water resource capacity of Qitai country in 2010 and 2020 were forecasted and analyzed by means of modeling of three alternatives;High,middle and low alternatives were put forward and then a synthesize method for environment and economy development in harmony was made.So the decision-maker can use it to make more scientific and dependable decision.