中国能源生态足迹效率的技术进步影响实证分析

Evaluating the Influence of Technological Advance on Chinese Energy Ecological Footprint Efficiency

借助生态足迹分析法(EFA)的理念,计算了中国1980—2007年的能源生态足迹及其动态效率,并利用非参数DEA-Malmquist生产率方法将广义技术进步分解为科技进步、纯技术效率和规模效率三个部分,然后实证分析了这三部分和能源专有技术进步对中国能源生态足迹动态效率的作用。结果表明,对能源生态足迹效率的促进上,能源专有技术进步的作用是最大的,但其基本随时间呈衰减趋势;技术效率一直有显著的积极作用,直接效果和长期效益较好,但基础性科技进步发挥作用周期的滞后性和稳定性却非常明显;进一步分解可知,纯技术效率的作用一般维持在两期,规模效率一般只在当期发挥作用。

In this paper, the Ecological Footprint Analysis are applied to evaluate on the energy ecological footprint and its efficiency of China in 1980 to 2007, and technology advance with its two and three factors （science advance and technology efficiency （pure technology efficiency and scale efficiency）） are assessed through DEA-Malmquist, then their impact on the energy ecological footprint is discussed. The conclusion is showed that all the factors influent the energy ecological footprint efficiency, and the energy technology advance plays the most important role, then the general technology advance, but it will lighter and lighter; for the two factors, technology efficiency and the based science and technology advance improve the energy ecological footprint efficiency, and the former has the director and longer benefit, the latter lagger and stabler; for the three factors, pure technology efficiency works only for two years and the scale technology efficiency only for one year. So, the different technology advance takes different positive effect, for the reasonable investment allocation, it has to be thought about the short-time of scale technology efficiency, the long-time of based science and technology advance and the direction of pure technology efficiency.