基于灰色灾变预测模型的项目经济效益预警分析

Study on Project Economic Benefits Prewarning based on Gray Disaster Prediction Model

项目投入后能否产生经济效益以及未来的时间里经济效益状况如何都是值得特别关注的问题。预测研究较之于一般的结果评价具有前瞻性,对项目投产后的经济效益进行预测评价具有重要的意义。从项目投产后每年产生的净现金流量入手,通过建立灰色灾变预测模型对项目投产后的经济效益进行预测分析,为项目经济效益预警分析提供了一个新的研究思路和方法。

After the carried out of the project,whether the investment will produce economic benefits or what the future economic situation is an issue of particular concern. To the general evaluation of the outcome,the study of prediction is of for- ward-looking,and it is of major significance for the prediction and evaluation of the economic benefits after the project put in- to operation.In this paper, from the the net annual cash flow after the project put into operation,and via the gray disaster prediction model, The prediction and evaluation of the economic benefits after the project put into operation showes that it is a very good attempt, provides a new research ideas and methods.