中美“轮胎特保案”对我国轮胎业及宏观经济的影响——基于GTAP模型的一般均衡分析

Effect of the Sino-US Special Protectionist Tariff on Tire Industry and Macro-economy in China:General Equilibrium Analysis Based on GTAP Model

美国宣布自2009年9月26日起对我国输美轮胎征收为期三年的惩罚性关税。本文利用GTAP模型就中美"轮胎特保案"对我国轮胎产业及宏观经济的影响进行模拟分析。结果表明:高于25%的惩罚性关税不仅给我国对美轮胎出口、轮胎产出与价格、贸易平衡以及产业收入与就业带来一定的负面冲击,也将对我国整体对外贸易条件、GDP增长及社会总福利产生不同程度的消极影响。

From September 26th.2009,USA punitives tariffs on China＇s tire export to U.S.in the next three years.This paper applies the Global Trade Analysis Project（GTAP）model to simulate the effect on China＇s tire industry and macro-economy in China by Sino-US Special Safeguard Case of Tire.The simulation results indicate that more than 25% punitive tariffs bring about not only certain negative impacts on China＇s tire export to U.S.,output,price,trade balance,industry revenue and employment,but also,varying degree negative impacts on the circumstances of China＇s overall foreign trade,GDP growth and social total benefit.