2009年上半年货币过多投放会导致2010年通货膨胀吗?

The Money Surplus Supply in the First Half Year of 2009 will Result in 2010's Inflation?

2009年以来,我国货币供应量增幅快速回升,银行大规模进行信贷投放,这不仅使得市场流动性显著增强,而且也为未来通胀预期增加了不确定性。本文利用1997-2009年CPI环比、货币供应量增量及人民币贷款增量三个指标月度数据构建向量自回归模型,分析结果显示:(1)通货膨胀对自身冲击影响最为敏感;(2)短期内货币供应量对通货膨胀影响并不明显,但较长期内(一般为7个月)货币供应量增量的变化对通货膨胀产生重大影响;(3)贷款对通货膨胀的作用较小,我国通货膨胀对金融机构贷款变动并不敏感;(4)2010年物价水平将逐步上升,但不会出现较高通货膨胀。

Since 2009,the growth rate of money supply increases rapidly and a large number of loans are provided by banks,Although,it improves market liquidity,yet it increases some uncertainty on future inflation.This paper uses monthly chain-year CPI,monthly money supply and monthly RMB loans from 1997 to 2009 to build three indicators of vector autoregressive model.The results show that：（1） Inflation has the most sensitive reaction on the impact from its own;（2）In the short run,money supply has no obvious impact on inflation,but in the long term（usually 7 months）,incremental changing in money supply has a major impact on inflation;（3） Loans play a Unimportant role on inflation.Inflation is not sensitive to changes in the loan;（4） In 2010,the price level will gradually rises,but there will be no higher inflation rate.