不完全信息下基于证据推理的竞争对手分析

Analysis of Competitors Based on Evidential Reasoning under the Condition of Incomplete Information

针对不完全信息下竞争对手分析问题,本文提出一种基于证据推理的分析方法。该方法首先定义了正负相似度对竞争者进行比较,接着通过证据推理对含有未知信息的相似度进行合成排序,最后根据信息熵原理度量结论的客观可靠度。与本文提及的其他方法相比,该方法可以在信息不完全的情况下识别分析竞争对手并提供关于结论的客观可靠度,符合商业竞争的实际特点,具有较强的实用价值。文中的案例分析证实了该方法的有效性。

To solve the problem of analyzing of competitors with incomplete information,a new method based on evidential reasoning is proposed.First,the positive similarity degree and the negative similarity degree are defined to compare competitors.Then the similarity degree with incomplete information is combined to rank priority by evidential reasoning.Finally,the objective reliability on result is measured according to information entropy theory.Compared with other methods mentioned in the paper,the new method can recognize and analyze the competitor under theco of and incompletein,besides,the objective reliability of results is given to decision-makers.The method accords with facts in business competition and is valuable.The case analysis shows the validity of the method.