中国居民储蓄利率弹性的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of Interest Rate Elasticity of Savings in China

利率调控的有效性和合理性极大程度上取决于居民的利率弹性。文章采用直线回归和直线相关分析方法对2002—2009年间我国储蓄利率与储蓄额以及储蓄利率和经济增长率之间的相关性进行了统计学分析,得出结论:我国的名义利率和储蓄额之间有着较大的相关性,即储蓄的利率弹性是比较充分的。但是实际利率和储蓄额之间呈弱相关关系,说明居民储蓄的利率弹性在多种因素的影响下受到一定程度的削弱。对此,本文分别从宏观与微观的角度进行了分析并提出相应的对策。

The effectiveness and validity of the interest rate rate. Using the Linear Regression and Linear Correlation, regulations largely depend on the elasticity of interest we analyzed the data of China from 2002 to 2009 and compared the correlation of interest rate with savings and interest rate with the growth rate of GDP respectively. We found that there was a high correlation between nominal interest rate and savings in China. However, the effective interest rate and savings showed a weak correlation, suggesting that the Chinese interest rate elasticity might be weaken by a variety of factors. The strategy for enhancing Chinese interest rate elasticity is proposed.