设备失效动态风险模型及其实证

Dynamic Risk Model of Equipment Failure and Empirical Study

受系统状态和设备工况的影响,设备运行中的失效风险具有动态属性。因此,在认识设备失效风险的可能性和严重性的同时,还必须认识和研究设备在系统寿命周期内失效风险的动态属性。通过对设备失效的概率和后果的影响因素(①设备自身失效率②设备实际载荷③设备在系统中的结构重要度④系统对设备的稳定性苛求度)的动态分析,将系统功能实现过程划分为若干风险稳定阶段,得出各个阶段的设备失效概率和后果严重度值,据此提出了动态风险模型。利用模型对金坛储气库水溶造腔系统进行实证研究,获得注水泵失效动态风险图,明确了造腔初期、中后期和注气排卤3个典型阶段的注水泵失效风险波动状况以及波动原因。实证研究说明,运用该分析模型可以推断系统运行周期内设备失效风险的变化状态和趋势,从而适时、有效地控制风险。

The running equipment of industrial system may be affected by not only the conditions of the system but also the operating state itself,so that the risk of equipment failure was of dynamic attributes.In researching the possibility and severity of the failure risk,it is necessary to understand and research the dynamic attributes of equipment failure in the system life cycle.By dynamic analysis of factors（①failure rate②practical load③importance of structure in system④demands of stability for system equipment）,this study investigated the factors affecting failure probability and failure consequence of equipment,divided the process of system operation into several stable risk stages,calculated and obtained failure probability value and failure consequence severity value of equipment in each stage,and so put forward a dynamic risk model.The model was used for cavity-made water system of Jintan underground gas storage,the map of pump dynamic failure risk was drawn out,and the situation and causes of the risk in three typical stages,early,middle and late stages of making storage and injection gas were recognized.Empirical studies show that the model may be used to infer the status and trends of equipment failure risk in the system running cycle,so that the risk may be controled effectively and timely.