摘要
目的 分析及预测5岁以下儿童的死亡率趋势.方法 本文根据全国5岁以下儿童死亡监测,采用时间序列曲线拟合方法,选用对数曲线对2000年婴儿及5岁以下儿童死亡率进行预测.结果 表明2000年我国婴儿死亡率(IMR)及5岁以下儿童死亡(USMR)预测值为26.4‰、33.4‰;1998年中国可实现IMR、USMR下降1/3的目标.对与5岁以下儿童死亡率相关的8个因素通过Pearson相关及多元回归,筛选出我国5岁以下儿童死亡的主要影响因素是人均国民生产总值、每千人床位数、新生儿访视率.结论 1998年我国可实现IMR。
ve To analysis and forecast the U5MR tendency. Methods This treatise is based on the monitoring data from under 5 years mortality surveillance in the whole country since 1990. By curve fitting, logarithminc curve is selected to forecast the Under 5 Years Mortality Rate (U5MR) and Infent Mortality Rate (IMR) of China in 2000. Results Predicted U5MR and IMR of China in 2000 are 26. 4‰ and 33. 4‰ respectively. In 1998, predicted U5MR and IMR of China cold reach the goal of dropping 1/3 compared with U5MR and IMR in 1990. By Pearson correlation and multiple regression, 8 factors related to U5MR have been been screened, and the main influential factors are GNP per capita, bed counters per 1000 person and tate of neonatel visiting. Conclusions Predicted U5MR and IMR of China in 1998 could reach the goal of dropping 1/3 compared with U5MR and IMR in 1990.
