基于系统动力学城市边缘区土地利用变化模拟与预测——以南京市江宁区为例

Simulation and Prediction of Land-Use Change in Urban Marginal Zone Based on System Dynamics Model——A Case Study of Jiangning County,Nanjing

以江宁区为例,在VENSIM软件平台上,构建城市边缘区土地利用变化动态系统模型并进行仿真模拟及预测,以为揭示城市边缘区土地利用变化特征及预防可能的土地利用问题提供参考。研究结果表明:①研究区耕地变化仍处于"土地洛沦兹曲线"的前段,耕地仍将持续减少,在加大农村建设投入情况下,直至2015后耕地面积才开始回升;②2013年后,耕地减少的主要动力将从城市经济发展驱动转为农村居民生产生活需求驱动方面,因此农村建设投入及调控、农村土地利用管理应列入今后政府及土管部门的重点工作内容。

This paper took Jiangning district of Nanjing City, Jiangsu Province for example, simulated and predicted the land-use changes in urban marginal zone in a dynamic system model to prevent the potential land-use issues by using VENSIM software. The results showed that： 1） the area of cultivated land will decrease from 2009 to 2014, but will increase in 2015 due to the increasing investment in rural construction; 2） after 2013, the main driving force for the reduction of cultivated land will transfer from the city＇s economic development to the demand for the production and living of rural residents, therefore, the investment, regulation and control of the rural development, as well as the management of rural land-use should be focused in the future work of the government and land management departments.