气象因素与北京地区肺炎发病的相关性研究

Correlation between meteorological factors and incidence of pneumonia in Beijing area

目的探讨气象因素与肺炎发病的关系。方法将北京中医药大学东直门医院1998—2007年肺炎病例双月发病数据进行描述性分析,对可能影响肺炎发病的气温、水汽压、相对湿度、降水量、风速5项气象数据进行单因素相关分析和多元逐步回归分析。结果第1阶段肺炎发病人数构成比与气温、水汽压呈显著性负相关(P<0.05);与风速呈显著性正相关(P<0.01);与降水量、相对湿度呈负相关,但未达到显著性水平(P>0.05);本阶段水汽压为影响肺炎发病的主要气象因素。第6阶段肺炎发病人数构成比与气温呈显著性负相关(P<0.05);与相对湿度呈显著性正相关(P<0.05);与降水量、风速呈正相关,与水汽压呈负相关,但均未达到显著性水平(P>0.05);本阶段气温为影响肺炎发病的主要气象因素。结论气温对肺炎的发生有直接的影响。

Objective To discuss the relationship between meteorological factors and incidence of pneumonia.Methods The bimonthly average incidence data of pneumonia were given descriptive analysis in cases of Dongzhimen Hospital of Beijing University of Chinese Medicine from 1998 to 2007.The single-factor correlation analysis and multi-stepwise regression analysis were carried out on 5 kinds of meteorological data including temperature,vapor pressure,relative humidity,precipitation and wind speed,which might influence the incidence of pneumonia.Results In the first stage the incidence of constituent ratio of pneumonia had a significant and negative correlation with temperature and vapor pressure （P0.05）,a significant correlation with wind speed （P0.01）,and a negative correlation with precipitation and relative humidity but did not reached significant level （P0.05）.Vapor pressure was a major factor influencing the incidence of pneumonia in this stage.In the sixth stage the incidence of lonstituent ratio of pneumonia had a significant negative correlation with temperature （P0.05）,a significant correlation with relative humidity （P0.05）,a correlation with precipitation and wind speed,and a negative correlation with vapor pressure but did not reached significant level （P0.05）.Temperature was a major factor influencing the incidence of pneumonia in this stage.Conclusion Temperature influences directly on the incidence of pneumonia.